The European Union hosted further talks between the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia last month, though representatives of both sides once again left Brussels without a dealto normalize the countries’ relations. Attempting to capitalize on any remaining momentum, E.U. and U.S. envoys visited both countries in late August, with minimal success.
Why has the E.U. struggled to bring about a final agreement between the two countries on normalizing relations? My researchsuggests there’s an overlooked factor: what the people of Kosovo want. While an array of international organizations is involved in peace-building, many Kosovars disapprove of the E.U.’s role in these efforts. This suggests that who mediates the process matters for citizens — perhaps as much as what’s being mediated.
What do Kosovars think?
To understand what people in Kosovo think about the E.U.’s efforts, I implemented a 20-minute telephone survey of 1,608 adults in June and July. A team of independently trained, experienced researchers used random-digit dialing methods to select Kosovar citizens (or permanent residents) to interview. All contacted respondents agreed to participate.
The survey sample is similar in age, gender, education and socioeconomic status to the broader Kosovar adult population. However, the survey’s ethnic demographics are slightly skewed toward Albanians, who constitute about 93 percent of Kosovo’s population.
I asked respondents questions regarding their attitudes toward the work of the E.U. in Kosovo, as well as that of NATO and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Response options ranged across a five-point scale.
The results suggest that Kosovars systematically disapprove of the E.U.’s role, both in relative and in absolute terms. While 42 percent of respondents were satisfied with E.U. contributions to peace and stability, 44 percent were unsatisfied. This stands in contrast to how they view NATO and the OSCE’s contributions — 94 percent of respondents were satisfied with NATO’s efforts, while 73 percent felt similarly toward the OSCE’s endeavors.
Similarly, a sizable 64 percent of respondents believed that the E.U. was partial in whom it serves, a finding in line with the charges made by many Kosovars of the E.U. mission’s “anti-Albanian” and “pro-Serbian” tendencies.
These findings are further reflected in the responses to a broader question: “How successful or unsuccessful have the following been at performing their tasks in Kosovo?” While the vast majority of respondents believed that NATO and the OSCE have been successful (95 percent and 78 percent, respectively), just 42 percent felt similarly about the E.U.
This finding is noteworthy, given each organization’s duties in Kosovo. While the E.U. has taken the lead on the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo and institutional reforms, NATO is primarily tasked with preventing further conflict and interethnic violence, yet the threat of both has risen substantially in the past 12 months. Despite difficulties faced by both missions, it appears as though Kosovars have become increasingly and disproportionately hardened in their negative attitudes toward the E.U.’s efforts.
While these data come from Kosovo, other survey results demonstrate similar levels of distrust in Serbia. A Eurobarometer survey found Serbian citizens are more distrustfulof the E.U. than other citizens in the Western Balkans. And as Serbia seeks E.U. membership, a recent IPSOS poll found Serbians have become increasingly disillusioned with its promises, instead looking toward Russia for peace, security and stability.
These trends matter. The E.U.’s ability to broker a lasting agreement between Serbia and Kosovo hinges on how the two parties perceive its effectiveness and impartiality. This is especially true as efforts to mediate the confrontation between Kosovo and Serbia become increasingly protracted./ Cameron Mailhot
